Political agreements will be key to preventing uncertainty and deepening the gap with citizens

In 2022 Venezuela, like never before, will require political agreements that prevent uncertainty from covering the timid signs of economic recovery and deepening the gap between politics and citizens. This was explained by the analyst and economist Asdrúbal Oliveros.

"The economy has stopped falling," according to technical projections that indicate growth of 3.1% year-on-year. And this is on top of the negative effects of covid-19, which will persist for the third consecutive year.

“If we do not reach broad political agreements, it is very difficult for us to get it out of that well; They are opportunities for some sectors, although a very weak improvement persists that does not reach the majority of citizens. That is why it is very important to build political agreements that allow international cooperation and that the economy improves," said Oliveros, director of the Ecoanalítica firm, during the ninth perspectives forum recently organized by the Fermín Toro Institute of Parliamentary Studies.

The event was also attended by Patricia Valenzuela, vice president of Infectology, who began her presentation with a stark presentation of what the covid-19 pandemic has meant since its appearance in 2020, its variants, and the challenges it represents by 2022. "It will continue with us," he said.

Historical record of cases

After taking a tour until January 16 of the historical record that the virus has reported in the world, “3.8 times higher than the recent highest week”, he explained how Venezuela fights to advance against the rapid spread of the disease, variants such as omicron, deficiencies and underreporting. This, while in other countries biosecurity measures, remote work and full vaccination requirements to enter are resumed.

He also recalled the record increase that Venezuela has had recently, even from any previous peak declared by the country's authorities. In addition, values ​​of polymerase reactions and real-time PCR for positive SARS-CoV-2 reached the historical record. “We have had 2,090 positive tests in one day,” he noted.

However, deficiencies persist, after two years in sampling, for real-time PCR, mainly polymerase chain reaction and antigen detection tests in much of the country. A path towards little certainty, uncertainty.

Venezuela could reach the threshold

"In recent weeks, between seven or eight states have not reported information and it is not because they do not have cases but because tests are not being carried out," he said. «We have never had official information on the number of real-time PCR that is carried out. It is possible that we are reaching very high proportions, probably 40% or 50% of the tests carried out are positive. And it is also possible that we are about to reach the logistics detection threshold, “he said.

Despite the fact that the WHO in Venezuela reported that 5,000 daily real-time PCRs are being performed, there is no certainty that the results are incorporated into the daily report of new covid-19 cases. "We know that real-time PCR is not performed in most of our public hospitals, and consequently 80% on average of the diagnostic and therapeutic approach of patients who come to the emergency room of our hospitals is based on clinical criteria," he pointed out.

Omicron, gamma and delta

The expert highlighted that despite the fact that the clinic has its before and after the omicron variant, which appeared in November and with more than 30 mutations, and which is found in most cases, the initial gamma and delta variants are still present, the latter in the south of the country, with the same symptoms that will require hospitalization.

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That is why he highlighted the importance of the third vaccination dose for 2022. In Venezuela, the vaccination coverage rate of two doses in adults is 36.28 until December 2021 in a general population of 28 million people, according to recent studies.

Valenzuela specified that the humanitarian needs that were detected in 2021 will prevail in 2022 in Venezuela. And it will be essential to focus on food security, basic services, human mobility and the protection of health and education.

The virus affected education around the world

"With covid-19, all essential health care services were restricted, due to confinement, and disease control and access to women's sexual and reproductive health. The Expanded Vaccination Plan was also affected. Our children stopped receiving doses corresponding to their primary vaccination series, other diseases broke out, such as malaria, which contributed more than 50% of cases to the region, and the outbreak of yellow fever in Anzoátegui," he warned.

The specialist recalled that Venezuela was one of the countries that kept its schools closed for more than 41 weeks, and that affected the schooling of 6.8 million students. At least 20% of students had difficulties completing the school year due to the difficulty of the distance education modality in remote areas. "Indigenous people were the most affected," he pointed out.

Economic recovery with agreements

Faced with the pandemic scenario, Olivares presented his projections for 2022. He highlighted "good news" amid nuances for the economy and the private sector fundamentally, as well as the challenges that this will represent. He explained five elements with which, in his opinion, the new year begins

First of all, a turning point year. «After the contraction that we experienced between 2014 and 2020, the economy is currently entering another stage of stagnation, of nationalization in the ditch, but it has new realities to evaluate; It is the smallest in recent years. Added to this is dollarization: two thirds of transactions are paid in a currency other than the bolivar, "which represents a financial and managerial challenge for companies in Venezuela," he said.

He also indicated a "slight improvement in the cash situation" that the government experienced in 2021, with the relative increase in oil production and oil prices that "are displayed for 2022", and that represented a higher income and also probability of strengths. He also mentioned the "black economy" related to the so-called bubble or consumer niches; and the overvaluation of prices in dollars.

Growing private companies

He highlighted that despite the contraction there are signs of growth such as that of the private sector (3.1% year-on-year) compared to the public sector that fell 5.4%, which indicates « the entrance to the dynamism».

“The private sector, as of 2021, begins to grow and it does so in sectors that are important, and that are not bubbles and bodegones, or Las Mercedes. When we look at the data, we find sectors such as health. In 2021, this had significant growth of 30% in terms of volumes. This encompasses three activities: the production of medicines, medical services and personal care, but above all the first is growing significantly," he said.

Triumph for Chavismo

He pointed out other elements linked to the government such as the diversification of the source of income that today represents about 65%; spending in dollars that are no longer converted into bolivars but injected directly into the economy. "It is a political triumph, although much of what is being applied for it are measures that restrict growth," he said.

By taking all these scenarios to the table of GDP in size of the economy with GDP per capita as a measure of wealth, he affirmed that Venezuela fell along with Nicaragua, Haiti, Honduras, Bolivia and El Salvador to the category of being a country structurally poor. “This does not imply that there is no business opportunity or profit for the private sector either. What it does imply is that these businesses and dynamics must be approached from another perspective of a smaller, poorer and also more unequal country,” he said.

A 2022 full of challenges

What is the biggest challenge for citizens and companies for 2022?, Oliveros asked: the increase in the cost of living in dollars, which he calculated at 25%. «What you bought with 100 dollars in December 2018, as of October 2021 requires the equivalent of 330 dollars to buy the same things. He projected a scenario of private consumption recovery of 10% "important for those of mass consumption", in which, in addition, no increases in imports are expected.

For this, it is key, he said, to understand that the context in which this 7% growth in nine sectors is experienced is very weak, after having fallen 80% in previous years.

He closed his speech with a warning against the stubborn stagnation of the economy, despite the fact that it stopped falling. "It is very important to build political agreements that allow international cooperation and that the economy improves," he insisted.

With information from a press release.

With information from a press release.

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